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October- Survival Plan's Monthly Recap |
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November 3rd, 2011
October was an active & profitable month in the Survival Plan with a net profit of 4.32%. The program calls for maintaining a mini gold position. Gold was at all-time highs as recently as August had a pull back in September but regained strength again in October closing the month at 1713.50. This resulted in an increase in open trade equity of $2,946 per portfolio. Besides a mini gold the Survival Plan trades 3 programs: (Condor) S&P day-trader, Diversified Commodity Basket, & Currency Basket.
The Condor S&P day-trading program took advantage expanding daily ranges making it easier for this program to pick up on intra- day trends. The daily average true range (ATR) for the S&P is currently at 30.95. This means an average day the S&P currently moves 30.95 points per day. The last time ATR for the S&P at these highs was May of ’10 when we saw the flash crash and before that was back in ’08 during the financial crisis. The Condor for the month had a net return of $9,676.5 per Survival Plan.
S&P Chart
The Currency Basket historically averages 90.4% ROR for year. However, this year is not a typical year in the currency market. The debt issues in Europe have made it difficult for the program to properly take advantage of trends since the news from week to week coming out of Europe is up and down, note the choppiness in the euro chart below. The Japanese Yen also had a governmental intervention October 31st forcing the price of the lower. The 3 trades in the program for the month were all losses with a net -36.6%. Going forward with the currency markets it is WWFS opinion that we will see opportunity in these markets to pick up substantial trends. Choppy markets and government intervention have made it difficult to find trends in currencies during 2011. This is not the norm. Currencies, historically, have been among the best trending markets. Choppiness in markets is often followed by large directional moves. We continue to view the Currency Basket as a very strong program.
EC Chart
The Diversified Commodity Basket had two trades in October one positive and one negative. Crude Oil was stopped out with a loss of -$2,120. We also saw a soybean trade when the price of beans dropped 14.68% in the month of September the program went short and closed out of that trade in October for a return of $3,175 in the trade.
Soybean Chart
This month is a great example of why the diversification within the Survival Plan is a crucial aspect to it’s success. Even though the currency program, which is a medium term trend following program, had a down month the Condor took advantage of larger intra- day trends. The Survival Plan trades in 14 commodity markets, in 6 sectors of the economy, and in 3 time frames.
Regards,
Bill Reavis
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239-221-8873
An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources, and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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